Thursday, November 15, 2007

Boom, Crash or Nothing!

Will the Real Estate market make a noise when it finally hits bottom? That seems to be what everyone is waiting on.

I say no. The market does not make a noise when it hits bottom. Only the numbers will tell you afterward, where the bottom was, and they will be historical numbers at that. And by then, you have missed the start of something big.

The market starts either by; someone speculating that others will buy what they produce, or people buying the excess of what was left over. When people start buying and diluting the inventory of the speculators, then others start jumping in to catch a ride on the momentum of the first in. At the same time investors start trying to become the middle-man in the process by buying and reselling. This will work for a while, but when your barber, or hair stylist, is telling you about the two properties they flipped, it's time to get out.

Not everyone can make money in the cycle, so when too many start to, the market corrects itself. Too many investors create an illusion that there are more buyers than there really are. The investors are buying to resell to the same buyers the speculators are looking for. At some point the speculators and others, who followed, have created too much, and the market runs out of buyers. So the market hits bottom, until it starts all over again.

People need houses, land and buildings. so they have to come back. If you have a need, find something that fits your need, at a price you can afford. Jump in, maybe you will be the noise that starts the market back up, all over again. Don't wait for the sound, like the 'great pumpkin,' it isn't coming.

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